The Public Ballot

I just finished reading Ian Ayres’ latest book, Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart. It was a fascinating read for me (but a fine introduction for the layman, as well). Through a series of anecdotes, Ayres provides the reader with a general overview of how data mining is changing the way everything operates, from web advertisement optimization to providing better medical care to impoverished areas of the world.

Critics contend that the type of models Ayres showcases have been around for decades (true), but that’s missing the point. Until now the access to large enough volumes of data necessary for randomization has been expensive (or in some cases) impossible. Data have become exponentially cheaper to collect and store. With the advent of modern data warehousing, data can be stored in a more general-purpose fashion. The processing power to effectively model and analyze large (and often disparate) sets of data, and test hypotheses not conceived at time of model conception is now widely available.

However, as Ayres points out, there is no need for humans to fear an end to their usefulness in decision-making. In many cases, these systems are making very arithmetic-intensive choices based on human selections and ratings.

To use an example from the first chapter: how would an accurate formula to predict the best Bordeaux vintages possibly be created without historical data on what humans think tastes best? More fundamentally, if a machine could formulate its own opinion on Bordeaux, would we care?